Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data
The average count of per-day homicides per month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new government figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that murder data may not point to better countrywide safety.
Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages
There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had in these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.
Historical Context and Government Plan
Fierce organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.
That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.
At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:
- Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
- Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
- Increased coordination between various agencies.
Expert Caution and Data Limitations
However, public safety experts cautioned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true given the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.
“It would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”
According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.
“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was also an issue because it may mask periods when there were especially high numbers of killings.
“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violence unseen,” he stated.
Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success
Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.
“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration
However despite these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.
Weeks later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.