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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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