Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
