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Initially, Trump seemed to adopt a strong stance on Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "significant ramifications" during the summer should Russia's president continued blocking truce talks, he eventually enacted substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously affected Putin's ability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, via his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, that was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European participation, he has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's plan would effectively favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Although bold declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the plan actually undermine that essential autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like giving Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a damaged area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his deepening autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While freezing in position the presently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would require the nation to give up the whole Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Russian forces a open route to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no similar limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, the plan states: "All radical ideology and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's borders in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should we believe Putin now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "decisive joint military response" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the details range from unclear to concerning. The plan would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, rearming, and reinvading.

International Response

A separate supplementary accord apparently would grant the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. Yet different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best protection against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not